What Happened in Canada?
Animals die, birds die, so it should not be a surprise that some Canadian geese were found dead on Prince Edward Island, a small, far-eastern province of Canada. But these four young geese caused a flurry of news stories [1] that began on June 16 and ended abruptly on June 21.
What happened?
- Sunday, June 4, 2006
The owner of a small flock of geese noticed that four young geese were "walking funny." On Monday morning, June 5, he found the four geese dead. The owner reportedly took one of the four geese to the Atlantic Veterinary College in Charlottetown, Canada, for testing.
- Friday, June 16, 2006
The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) announced that the laboratory tests had detected the presence of an H5 influenza virus, a finding that would have to be confirmed by the National Centre for Foreign Animal Diseases in Winnipeg.[2] This laboratory would also determine other features of the virus, including neuraminidase typing (N typing). Results were expected by the following week.
The same day, CFIA said that there was no evidence that this latest bird flu case was caused by the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain, and “just because the virus was there does not mean that's what killed the geese.”[3]
- Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Dr. Jim Clark, national manager of CFIA's avian influenza working group, stated in a conference call that:
"We can't produce the same test result in Winnipeg that the Atlantic Veterinary College produced on testing the samples." [4]
And:
"All of the samples have completed their testing and they're all negative for avian influenza.”[5]
Dr. Clark stated his belief that the initial test results were probably accurate, but that the samples may have been damaged during transport to Winnipeg. Even so, he claimed to be “absolutely” sure that the birds were not killed by the deadly version of H5N1.
What may have happened
Of course, it is possible that the initial testing may have produced a falsely positive result, and the deaths were caused by something other than bird influenza. I have seen no evidence that would support this assumption.
If the initial testing was correct, the later Winnipeg laboratory test would have produced a false negative, making it likely that the deaths were indeed caused by an influenza virus of the H5 subtype. The “funny walk” observed in the four geese points to neurologic damage that, together with the short time between symptoms and death, would be consistent with a Qinghai-type H5N1 strain.
This strain would be new to the North American continent and would most likely have made its way by bird migration from Africa via the East Atlantic Flyway. But all of this is speculation until definitive results are made public.
Next
If all goes well, the Winnipeg laboratory will succeed in growing the H5 virus from additional samples that were taken from the goose that died. Analysis of the virus genes could then provide clarity -- provided the Canadian agencies will make the full sequence information available promptly.
Until then, we will not know what happened in Canada, soothing words from CFIA representatives notwithstanding.
Let’s hope it turns out to be a low-pathogenic H5N1 or H5N2 strain. Then the geese must have died from something else. If it is high-pathogenic H5N1, and especially if it has the deadly characteristics of the Qinghai strain, it would be wise for each of us to get busy preparing for a possible outbreak.
In the mean time
Because there is no fully effective defense, we will be quite vulnerable until there is a fast and dependable way to make effective influenza vaccines. This appears to still be years away. Until then, it falls to us individually to prepare.
The withholding of test data and the other secretive behavior of governments and health agencies make it more difficult for us to take appropriate preventive action. If we let this behavior continue, it will harm us all.
This message is spreading in top scientific journals:
“Concern about the accessibility of data on flu strains remains an acute issue, which research administrators and political leaders should step forward and address.”[6]
It has also reached the United States Congress. The following is from a letter to Mike Leavitt, secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services:
“In the case of the Avian Flu, the very properties we fear the most -- the ease with which the virus is transmitted and the ability to kill its host -- are encoded in the virus’ genome. Yet the genetic sequences are currently only immediately available to a select group of researchers, a practice which is hampering and delaying our ability to respond to the threat of a pandemic influenza. We will need as many scientific eyes as possible examining this problem.”[7]
You too can help support efforts to make this vital information public, for example, by writing to those who represent you in government.
[2] http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060616/h5_goose_060616/20060616?hub=Canada
[4] http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/20062006/2/national-federal-lab-hasn-t-found-avian-flu-viruses-p.html
[6] Anon.
Action stations: The time for sitting on flu data is over. [Editorial]
Nature 2006 June 28;441(7097):1028.
doi:10.1038/4411028b
[7] http://www.declanbutler.info/blog/Kucinich%20Gilchrest%20Avian%20Flu%20letter.pdf
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