Will We Have Bird Flu in North America?

You bet we will!  We are now witnessing a panzootic, the animal equivalent of a pandemic.  It means that the H5N1 influenza A subtype is spreading among birds around the globe and nothing can keep it from doing so.  More than 40 countries [click here for Table] have officially reported isolating avian influenza viruses in birds, but many more countries are likely to have been invaded and either may not have detected infected animals or failed to file reports.  

When the H5N1 virus first broke out among humans in 1997, health officials in Hong Kong responded very quickly and with great competence, curbing the outbreak and preventing further spread.  Unfortunately, this virus strain survived and broke out again in 2003, first in Southeast Asia, then spreading westward, and now fanning out across Europe and Africa.[1]

And now here?

This week, General Bernard Vallat, director of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), has warned that Australia, the United States and Canada are “at very high risk” of bird flu infection.[2]  It is almost certain that H5N1 will invade Canada and the United States by two routes, through bird migration via Alaska and through bird migration along the East Atlantic Flyway from Africa to the East Coast of Canada and the United States.

What’s being done?

The U.S. government is focused on the Western route mainly in Alaska and, starting in April, plans to sample from 75,000 to 100,000 birds that will be tested for the H5N1 virus.  This will greatly increase surveillance efforts over the roughly 12,000 birds that were tested in the years since 1996.  Similar increases in surveillance would appear necessary on the East Coast.

When will it get here?

Unless H5N1 gets here first through the bird trade, for example via an illegally imported infected fighting cock, we should expect the first cases following Spring bird migration, and then more cases as the virus spreads southward, covering most of the contiguous U.S. by fall this year.  Mind you, all of this is to happen only in birds -- if we are lucky.

What’s the threat?

For poultry, any exposure to wild birds will carry increased risk.  Farmed birds that are kept securely indoors will be at low risk. 

Humans will experience increased risk to the extent that they are close to infected poultry.  The chances of H5N1 transmission from wild birds to humans are still very, very small. There is no reliable evidence that this kind of transmission has occurred.

H5N1 influenza remains primarily a bird infection, notwithstanding a few cases in other species, including us humans.  It would be nice if we could be sure that it will remain so, even after the H5N1 virus arrives here. There’s a good chance that we’ll be quite safe, but there are no guarantees.  It will all depend on the mindless motions of molecules.

 

Official OIE reports of Avian Influenza[3]
Country	Virus Type
Albania	H5N1
Austria	H5N1
Azerbaijan	H5N1
Bosnia and Herzegovina	H5
Bulgaria	H5N1
Cambodia	H5N1
China (People's Rep. of)	H5N1
Croatia	H5N1
Egypt	H5N1
France	H5N1
Georgia	H5
Germany	H5N1
Greece	H5N1
Hong Kong (SARPRC)	H5N1
Hungary	H5N1
India	H5N1
Indonesia	H5N1
Iraq	H5
Iran	H5N1
Italy	H5N1
Japan	H5N1
	H5N2
Kazakhstan	H5N1
Korea (Rep. of)	H5N1
	H5N2
Laos	H5
Malaysia (peninsular)	H5N1
Mongolia	H5N1
Niger	H5N1
Nigeria	H5N1
Pakistan	H5
Philippines	H5
Poland	H5N1
Romania	H5N1
Russia	H5N1
Serbia and Montenegro	H5
Slovakia	H5N1
Slovenia	H5N1
Switzerland	H5N1
Taipei China	H5N2
Thailand	H5N1
Turkey	H5N1
Ukraine	H5N1
Vietnam	H5N1
Zimbabwe	H5N2

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[1]  This map shows a conservative interpretation of confirmed H5N1 outbreaks among birds: http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/Maps/Global_H5N1inAnimalConfirmedSINCE2006_20060309.png

[2] E.g.,  http://abcasiapacific.com/news/stories/asiapacific_stories_1587448.htm

[3] For full table and access to country reports go to: http://www.oie.int/downld/AVIAN%20INFLUENZA/A_AI-Asia.htm

Comments

[martyn]

If you want to be in the least helpful you need to keep your articles consistent. Your views on the threat of birdflu are all over the place - some saying the sky is falling others saying the risk is minimal. From that pespective you just seem amateur and annoying to read.

[Gloria Hancook]

We are so afraid cause we have 5 cat fur-children and are afraid that if they eat an infected bird they will not only die, they will infect us cause we are always picking them up and loving on them.

[A Aleksa]

In your article "Will we Have Bird Flu in North America", I found your second paragraph to be misleading;

"When the H5N1 virus first broke out among humans in 1997, health officials in Hong Kong responded very quickly and with great competence, curbing the outbreak and preventing further spread. Unfortunately, this virus strain survived and broke out again in 2003, first in Southeast Asia, then spreading westward, and now fanning out across Europe and Africa.[1]"

In the above paragraph, you make it sound as though the virus H5N1 is a human virus. Authorities indicate that it is not a human virus. Although potential for human infection by H5N1 is possible but still rare, those infected become very sick and often die. So there is no doubt that H5N1 is deadly. However, until the virus mutates to the level of potential to cause human-human infection, the threat is only imagined. This misinformation (or editing error)does nothing to sooth our already terrorized world population, and does everything to feed the insatiable hunger of pharmaceutical giants.

The rest of the article is consistent with what I have read from international and national sites that are monitoring this virus as part of their mandate to protect the public health (and world economy).

Please be more careful about the perceptions you create. Mass fear (hysteria) is no friend!

[rob]

Question: Not talking about bird flu jumping to humans but if our poultry production plants do get infected, does cooking kill the flu?
I do not eat much meat, anymore, but do eat a lot of turkey and chicken.

[Catherine Hinson]

Why does the government tell us to stockpile tuna and powdered milk?

And, will immunizations help us survive the bird flu?

[J D]

I expected more from your articles. So Far everything about an avian flu outbreak can be summed up by saying LET'S FLIP A COIN!

Where is the info that would help people to safeguard their health and info about substances that kill as well as carry the virus?

[Carla]

I have a pond where I live with plenty of wild ducks. How concerned should I be? They often come up in the back yard and mess, and there are people and children around that feed them. The other question I have is I have heard of HSN1 but what is H5 and HSN2? Should we be concerned with these also? What are they? Thanks