What About This Bird Flu?

When I Googled “Bird flu” this morning, I got 39 million hits. Even the technical search term “H5N1,” sort of the name tag for this influenza virus strain, yields well over 5 million hits. World leaders confer about the danger of a wordwide outbreak of bird flu and governments stockpile medications in the hope of containing such a pandemic.  What’s all this about?

Especially since the recent outbreak in Turkey, I keep getting questions from neighbors, relatives, colleagues, friends, and acquaintances: What about bird flu? Is this a real danger or is it hype? When is it going to get here? What should I do about it? 

While I am trying to find evidence to answer these questions, it occurs to me that our RealAge members, probably being more curious than average, may also want to know more. So, if you are curious, I’ll be happy to share with you what I find out as I go. As usual, it looks like a “good news—bad news” story.

First, what may pass for good news

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza, bird flu for short, was detected in birds decades ago.  It killed chickens, but apparently caused no health problems in humans until 1997.

The present outbreak of this virus strain began in 2003. Since then, as of January 19, 2006, H5N1 influenza has killed 80 persons worldwide. There were no deaths from bird flu anywhere in the Americas. Bird flu has killed far, far fewer people then the usual influenza. In the U.S. alone, there are more than 30,000 influenza-related deaths in a typical year. 

Even though H5N1 influenza virus strains have been around at least since 1959, they have not managed to efficiently jump from one person to another. So, why worry?

Now for the not-so-good news

In the unlikely event that you become infected with the H5N1 flu, your chance of surviving is a bit less than even, if you believe the data since 2003. According to the World Health Organization count, 149 persons were confirmed to have been infected with the bird flu virus and of these, 80 persons died, giving a case-fatality rate of about 53%. 

It is not clear if this death rate is real. We don’t know if all H5N1 deaths were diagnosed and counted, nor do we know if there were many mild cases that were never counted as bird flu and never tested. Suppose that for each confirmed case there were 9 cases that never made it into the statistics. That would drop the death rate to 5.3%. The 1918–1919 influenza, the worst ever recorded, had about half of that hypothetical death rate. In other words, we may be observing an influenza virus strain that is twenty times more deadly than the dreaded 1918 influenza. 

Where does this leave us?

The bad news is that we are faced with a virus that is readily transported by birds and will likely spread around the globe. It rarely jumps from birds to humans, but when it does, it tends to make people very ill and kills about half of those infected.   

The good news is that the bird flu virus does not have the ability to jump from person to person like the familiar seasonal flu. To get infected, you may have to be close to infected birds or eat infected bird meat that’s insufficiently cooked.

If the bird flu virus doesn’t spread among us humans, why is everybody so jittery? 

Suppose the bird flu virus changes and becomes capable of jumping from person to person as easily as the seasonal flu does. Suppose further that it retains its ability to kill its victims as readily as it does now. Can you imagine the consequences? For a variety of reasons this is not a likely scenario, but viruses mutate very easily and we cannot predict when they do and in what ways—which may explain the jitters.

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Table: Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO as of 19 January 2006¹

Date of onset	Cambodia		China		Indonesia		Thailand		Turkey		Viet Nam		Total
	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths
2003	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	3	3
2004	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	12	0	0	29	20	46	32
2005	4	4	8	5	16	11	5	2	0	0	61	19	94	41
2006	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	4	2	0	0	6	4
Total	4	4	9	6	17	12	22	14	4	2	93	42	149	80

Total number of cases includes number of deaths.
WHO reports only laboratory-confirmed cases.

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¹http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2006_01_19/en/index.html

Comments

[Jeanne Sanderson]

Hi there. I am personally very glad you are posting information about the Bird Flu. I have been reading about it since the beginning of 2005 and I am getting very scared, especially since it has now entrenched itself in the European countries. What, if anything, can we do?
Thanks.
Jeanne

[Michele Adams]

Knowledge is a good thing. I am glad to know that as long as the poultry that we eat is safe by cooking it thoroughly our risks are very low. Our country is very blessed by our Lord and I believe that we will continue to be blessed as long as we continue to follow in His ways. Don't be scared, use wisdom and have faith!!!

[Fatima Neves]

Is South America under the menace of H5N1 too?

[Robert A. Holtz]

Would it be advisable to go total vegetarian? I tend to eat a lot of chicken for dinner.

This bird flu how much of it for real, or a plot to scare a whole population into getting a flu shot? I do not trust the big Pharmacies or our government in giving us the truth.. Let us not forget the size of the Perscription Drug lobby and the influence in has over congress...

[nisha]

is there any fear of bird flu in u.a.e

[jessie]

what is the difference between H5N1 AND H5N2? WHICH IS THE MOST FATAL FLU? ANY CURES AT THE MOMENT OR ARE RESEARCHERS STILL WORKING ON CURE?

[lonie]

I am glad for the information on the web site, I myself also eat a lot of chicken over beef,and I have wondered about the bird flu, but I do as others ask. Blessings over my food when I eat chicken at home or, out in resturants, fast food places, I do believe in faith by praying over everything we eat, in the name of Jesus Christ who blesses. Thank you for the information on this site, God Bless all who keep us informed.

[Anna S. Borgquist]

It is unfortunate that the hype about preparedness for a bird flu pandemic has led people to believe that fowl are unsafe to eat and that we are in immediate danger of dying of this flu. Preparedness is extremely important, but the public needs truthful and complete information.
Thanks for providing accurate information.